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07/01/2004:
"Poppies Flood Afghanistan; Opium Tide May Yet Turn"
by David Rohde New York Times:full articleKABUL, Afghanistan, June 30 — So many farmers grew opium poppies in Afghanistan this spring that the opium market here is now flooded, causing prices for the illegal drug to drop by an average of 65 percent across the country, according to Afghan officials, Western diplomats and opium farmers.
...Experts say the high profit Afghan farmers make on opium is by far the largest incentive they have to grow the illegal crop. If prices tumble far enough and the government mounts a credible crackdown, farmers may decide that growing opium is no longer worth the risk, they say.
"There is a tremendous opportunity developing now," said a Western diplomat.
...Last year, an estimated 1.7 million Afghans, 7 percent of the country's population, grew opium in 28 of the country's 31 provinces. Opium generated an estimated $1 billion in 2003, roughly one-quarter of Afghanistan's gross domestic product. Limited efforts by the Afghan government, the United States and Britain to use eradication and alternative crops to slow opium production have failed.
...For decades, opium prices remained comparatively low in the country, at roughly $30 a kilogram (2.2 pounds), according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. But after the Taliban enacted a brief ban on production in 2001, the prices soared to $750 a kilogram.
Eager to get in on this bonanza, farmers planted more and more opium in 2002 and 2003, according to the United Nations. Higher production brought prices down to roughly $350 a kilogram in 2002 and $283 in 2003.
This spring's oversupply has driven the price down to an average of roughly $100 a kilogram, according to Western diplomats. In the southern province of Helmand, long a center of opium cultivation, tomatoes are selling for more, according to farmers and shopkeepers.
Yes indeed now here is some exciting news. Afghanistan is growing SO MUCH opium that prices for heroin in Europe will fall through the floor, and the experts apparently believe that the way to control opium in Afghanistan is to price farmers out of the market so they grow something else. So, worldwide the thing to do obviously is to encourage farmers to grow as much coca and opium as possible-talk about putting a positive spin on the disaster which is Afghanistan.
